HIMS & Hers: The Telehealth Rocket Ship That's Redefining Healthcare Investment

Research Report | October 2025

Axum Group of Companies - Investment Research Division

The 500% Return That Nobody Saw Coming

While most investors focused on AI and crypto in 2024, a healthcare revolution was underway. Hims & Hers Health (NYSE: HIMS) delivered over 500% returns since January 2024, going from a $9 stock to a $58 leader disrupting healthcare. This may be just the beginning.

The Numbers Don't Lie: A Financial Masterpiece

When a company delivers 69% revenue growth, maintains 80% gross margins, and turns profitable, that's not just growth – it's sustainable growth in a giant market.

Financial Snapshot:

Revenue (2024): $1.48B – Beat Guidance
Revenue Growth (YoY): 69% – Accelerating
Gross Margin: 79.5% – Best-in-Class
EBITDA Margin: 12.0% – Expanding
Net Income: $126M – Profitable
EPS (Diluted): $0.53 – Positive
Cash Position: Debt-Free
Subscribers: 2.4M – Growing

That revenue trajectory shows perfect market timing and business execution. From $83 million to a projected $2.3 billion in six years—the growth every investor wants.

Revenue Growth: Decelerating But Still Exceptional

Let's be honest about the numbers. HIMS revenue growth is expected to moderate in fiscal 2025, with guidance of $2.3-2.4 billion representing roughly 55-60% growth (down from 69% in FY24). This reflects the law of large numbers—maintaining triple-digit growth gets harder at scale.

But here's what analysts might be missing:

Revenue Trajectory & Upside Factors:

Fiscal Year	Revenue	YoY Growth	Analyst View	Potential Upside
2024	$1.48B	+69%	Beat guidance	Faster GLP-1 adoption
2025	$2.3-2.4B	+55-60%	Conservative?	New launches, international expansion

Hidden upside factors not in consensus:

GLP-1 outperformance: Weight loss demand exceeding projections
International expansion: Early traction in UK, Germany, Canada markets
Cross-sell acceleration: More customers treating multiple conditions
New category launches: Longevity and hormonal health rollouts
Regulatory clarity: FDA resolution could unlock additional opportunities

Even "slowing" to 55% growth puts HIMS among the fastest-growing profitable companies in healthcare.

The Stock Performance: Buckle Up for the Ride

Yes, it's volatile. But from the February 2025 peak of $73, smart money has been accumulating on every dip.

What IS Hims & Hers? Why It's Brilliant

Think of HIMS as the Amazon of healthcare for things you'd rather handle privately. Their seamless telehealth and prescription business covers sexual health, mental wellness, weight management, and dermatology.

Business process:

Visit website, fill medical form
AI matches you to a provider
Prescription issued & fulfilled by pharmacy
Discreet delivery to your door
Ongoing subscription care

It's healthcare for the Amazon generation—convenient, private, and cost-effective.

The MOAT: Defensible Advantages

HIMS has not one but six durable moats:

Brand & Trust: Leading in stigmatized health categories
Network Effects: AI improves with scale (MedMatch platform)
Scale Advantages: 30-50% cost over traditional models
Regulatory Barriers: Complex compliance requirements
Customer Stickiness: 85% retention, high cross-sell
Data Advantage: Proprietary dataset gets more valuable

Moat Table:

Brand & Trust: Strong, High Durability
Network Effects: Emerging, High
Scale Advantages: Strong, Medium
Regulatory Barriers: Medium, High
Customer Stickiness: High, Medium
Data Advantage: Growing, High

The Market Opportunity: Still Early

Market Breakdown:

US Telehealth Market: $87B (HIMS Penetration: 1.7%) – Massive
GLP-1 Weight Loss: $14B (5%) – Large
Mental Health Digital: $12B (2%) – Large
Sexual Health D2C: $8B (15%) – Medium
Total US Healthcare: $4.9T (<0.1%) – Enormous

Even at just 1% market share: $49B in opportunity.

Growth Drivers: Multiple Engines Firing

GLP-1 Weight Management: HIMS projects $725M from weight loss drugs in 2025 alone, accessible at a fraction of typical costs.

International Scaling: Early expansion into UK, Germany, and Canada provides runway beyond domestic growth.

Category Expansion: New launches in testosterone therapy, longevity care, and hormonal health address massive underserved markets.

The beauty: Multiple growth vectors reduce dependence on any single driver while expanding the total addressable market.

Risks: What Could Go Wrong?

Regulatory: FDA scrutiny on compounded drugs
Competition: Amazon entering telehealth aggressively
Market Saturation: Penetration will plateau someday
Execution: Global and category expansion must be flawless
Growth Moderation: Maintaining high growth rates at scale gets challenging

HIMS has already pivoted through regulatory and competitive changes and continues to adapt.

Scenario Analysis: What's This Worth?

Scenario	Revenue 2030E	Subscribers	EBITDA Margin	Multiple	Target Price
Bull	$8-10B	15-20M	25-30%	15-20x	$120-150
Base	$5-7B	10-12M	20-25%	8-12x	$75-95
Bear	$3-4B	6-8M	15-20%	4-8x	$40-60

Investment Thesis: Why Axum Group Remains Bullish

Despite growth moderation, HIMS delivers:

Still exceptional growth: 55%+ in a $4.9T market
Profitable scaling with best-in-class margins
Multiple durable moats getting stronger over time
Secular digitization tailwinds in healthcare
Proven management execution through challenges
Conservative guidance likely hiding upside surprises

Current Price: $57.87

12-Month Target: $75-85

Position Sizing: 3-5% for growth investors

The slight growth deceleration is normal scaling dynamics, not a fundamental problem. With multiple growth engines and potential upside not reflected in estimates, HIMS remains a compelling long-term holding.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes and is not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investing involves risk. Consult a professional before making major investment decisions.

About Axum Holdings: Founded in 2012, Axum is a private investment holding company focused on steady cash flow and long-term value through diversified holdings.