Predicting Bitcoin and Ethereum Peaks in the 2024 Halving Cycle: A Historical Analysis

Bitcoin halvings—events that reduce the mining reward by half roughly every four years—have historically signaled the start of bull market cycles. The most recent halving occurred on April 19, 2024, cutting the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. With 461 days already passed as of today, July 24, 2025, we're deep into this cycle. Based on trends from prior halvings, this article examines when Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) might reach their peaks, drawing from historical data to provide informed estimates.

Understanding Bitcoin Halvings and Market Cycles

Bitcoin's halving mechanism is built into its protocol to control supply and mimic the scarcity of precious metals like gold. Historically, each halving has preceded significant price rallies, as reduced supply meets growing demand. While the 2012 cycle was shorter and often considered an outlier due to Bitcoin's nascent stage, the 2016 and 2020 cycles offer more reliable patterns for modern projections.

In these cycles:

• Post-halving rallies typically last 12–18 months before peaking.

• Bitcoin leads the charge, with Ethereum often peaking shortly after, sometimes extending into an "altcoin season."

Current market sentiment as of mid-2025 supports optimism: Bitcoin is hovering around $118,000, up significantly from pre-halving levels, but analysts predict further upside to $150,000 or more by year's end. Ethereum is currently around $3,650 and is projected to climb toward $6,000–$10,000 in 2025, benefiting from Bitcoin's momentum and its own ecosystem developments.

Historical Data: Peaks in Past Cycles

To estimate future peaks, we analyze the time from halving to all-time highs in the last two major cycles. Here's a breakdown:

Cycle	Halving Date	BTC Peak Date	Days to BTC Peak	ETH Peak Date	Days to ETH Peak
2016	July 9, 2016	Dec 17, 2017	526	Jan 13, 2018	553
2020	May 11, 2020	Nov 10, 2021	548	Nov 10, 2021	548

• Average days for BTC: (526 + 548) / 2 = 537 days.

• Average days for ETH: (553 + 548) / 2 = 550.5 days.

These figures align with broader analyses showing peaks around 17–18 months post-halving. Note that Ethereum's peaks have occasionally lagged Bitcoin's by a few weeks, allowing for extended gains in the broader crypto market.

Projections for the 2024 Cycle

Applying these averages to the April 19, 2024, halving:

• Bitcoin Peak: 537 days post-halving points to approximately October 8, 2025.

• Ethereum Peak: 550.5 days post-halving suggests around October 21, 2025.

As of July 24, 2025, we've seen 461 days of this cycle, leaving about 76 days until Bitcoin's estimated peak and 89 days for Ethereum. This timeframe falls within Q3–Q4 2025, consistent with expert forecasts. Factors like institutional adoption via ETFs, regulatory clarity, and global economic conditions could accelerate or delay these timelines.

However, some models, like the stock-to-flow ratio, predict even higher prices and potentially extended cycles into early 2026 if altcoins like Ethereum continue rallying post-Bitcoin peak.

Key Considerations for Investors

While historical trends provide a roadmap, they're not foolproof. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and external events—such as macroeconomic shifts or technological upgrades (e.g., Ethereum's ongoing improvements)—can alter trajectories. Consider a diversified approach when allocating to BTC and ETH as part of a balanced portfolio, and always conduct thorough due diligence.

Stay tuned to the Axum Inc. blog for more insights on investment trends. Subscribe to our newsletter at axuminc.ca to receive updates directly in your inbox.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risk.

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