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The Geoeconomic Interregnum: Why the Next Decade Won't Look Like Anything You've Been Told
- Elias Zeekeh, MBA, CPA, CMA
- 5 days ago
- 2 min read
The world isn't transitioning from one economic order to another—it's fracturing into two parallel systems. And most investors are positioning for the wrong outcome.
For the past three years, financial media has been dominated by two competing narratives. The "multipolar" camp points to China's manufacturing dominance, BRICS expansion, and the dollar's declining reserve share as proof that American hegemony is collapsing. The "US supremacy" camp counters with America's technological monopolies, unmatched capital markets, and the dollar's persistent transactional dominance.
Here's what both sides are missing: they're both right—and both wrong.
We're not witnessing a clean handoff of global power. We're entering what we call a "Geoeconomic Interregnum"—a volatile period where the old unipolar mechanisms are eroding, but new multipolar structures remain dangerously immature. The result? Two incompatible economic operating systems emerging simultaneously.
In October 2025, BRICS operationalized "The Unit"—a gold-backed trade settlement token on the Cardano blockchain designed to bypass the dollar entirely. Meanwhile, the US GENIUS Act institutionalized dollar stablecoins, creating a "digital dollarization" that's quietly conquering emerging markets even as central banks de-dollarize at the sovereign level.
China's manufacturing output now dwarfs America's—$5.65 trillion versus roughly $3 trillion. Yet the US retains what we call "technological quasi-unipolarity" through its stranglehold on AI, advanced semiconductors, and cloud infrastructure. The CHIPS Act has triggered over half a trillion dollars in private investment that will triple US chipmaking capacity by 2032.
So which system wins?
Our research reveals why that's the wrong question. The real opportunity—and the real risk—lies in understanding how these parallel systems will coexist, collide, and create entirely new investment dynamics. We identify the "connector economies" positioned to arbitrage the friction between blocs, explain why traditional diversification strategies are obsolete in an Interregnum, and outline the "barbell strategy" institutional investors are already deploying.
The dollar's reserve share has hit a 20-year low. US federal debt is projected to reach 185% of GDP by 2050. China faces 61-83 million citizens at financial risk. BRICS members can't even agree on a joint communiqué.
The old playbook is broken. Download the new one.
